Realty by Design\’s Blog

The front page of the paper is always the same; more bad news. Oh, how bad the market is; real estate sales are dropping, sales are lower than last year, and so on. But is that really true?   Not in my office, not even close. At our office meeting last month, it was reported that our numbers are way up over last year, in fact over 50% improved in numbers of sales, commissions earned and profit share.   While housing prices haven™t begun to improve, at least they seem to be declining at a slower rate. I know, forever an optimist, but I am happy to report that at least in my office of over 300 agents, we are selling a lot of homes!

Relating that to Gulf Harbors, we continue to see fewer homes on the market. I know it seems like more, but today there are only 85 homes Active in the MLS (Multiple Listing Service).   One reason it appears that there is a lot for sale in Gulf Harbors is that over 23 % of Active and Pending homes for sale are on Floramar Terrace, so they are very visible.   Given we have approximately 1775 homes œin the hood, that equates to less than 5% of properties in Gulf Harbors for sale by real estate companies (FYI- last month there were 75 pending, so more homes are coming on the market).. According to one source, there are an additional 79 homes in pre-foreclosure, again a very small percentage overall of any community in this era. So we are not in too bad of shape over all.

The end of summer is reputably a slow time for real estate, and true to form, we had just 5 closings in August, and 6 in September.   But another 10 homes went under contract in the same time period, 6 of these are short sales and the remaining 4 regular sales. There are a total of 15 pending sales as of today.

Speaking of short sales and foreclosures, did you know you can call the county and make a complaint if there is a home near you with an overgrown lawn? The gal I talked to recently about an abandoned home on my street said it was their busiest department; imagine that. It doesn™t hurt to make a call; hopefully the county can help us maintain our property values by keeping the lawns trimmed at vacant properties.   Call Pasco County at 727-847-2411 with the address in need and make your complaint. Every voice counts!

In other news, did you know that Pasco County has established a website where you can see what properties are coming up for foreclosure auction and register to bid on those properties? If you have a particular property you are interested in following, you can go to the county website, www.pascoclerk.com, and find out if a foreclosure date has been set. If it has, you can open the foreclosure document and find the auction date.   You can them go to the auction website: www.pasco.realforeclose.com/ and see it on the calendar.   If you register, you can then save the property to your own account and monitor the activity. It™s not super user friendly, but it isn™t bad either.   If you want to bid on a property or are just curious about when the eyesore on your street is going to get a new owner, it is an interesting site to explore.

With elections just ahead in November, it™s is important for everyone to exercise your rights and get out and vote.   In addition to the candidates, there is a critical amendment up for vote, Amendment 4.   As a Realtor myself, I thought it important to report that the Florida Association of Realtors, the Florida Home Builders Association, the Florida Chamber of Commerce, the Florida Land Council and other key business groups founded Floridians for Smarter Growth (FSG) to defeat Amendment 4.   œFSG has partnered with business and community leaders throughout Florida to build a strong state-wide coalition and grassroots network. According to these strong associations and groups, Amendment 4 is œone of the greatest threats to Florida’s economy and quality-of-life, and œThis œVote on Everything amendment would force Florida voters”not the representatives they elected”to decide thousands of changes to local government comprehensive plans each year at the ballot box.   For more information about this crucial vote, go to www.Florida2010.org . If you agree, please Vote NO on Amendment 4.  

 This was the headline on a letter I recently received at my home in Gulf Harbors.   Really, time is running out for what?   Sinkhole Activity   . . .   it continued.   Really?The letter went on to say that this company had been œsuccessful in recovering large checks for several of your neighbors . . .     and so on.   My neighbors in Gulf Harbors?   The author wrote that they were not contractors, but adjusters who would give me a free 11 point inspection and I could potentially receive a check. Whoopie,   free money!  Don™t know about you, but this type of advertising pushes my buttons.   In a recent home inspection, a home buyer discovered a crack in a concrete block wall (not in Gulf Harbors, by the way), and called someone she knows who works for a sinkhole repair company who frightened her out of the contract.   His words were, œif we did a sinkhole test in this neighborhood, 98% of these homes would have sinkholes.   Oh yes. Have you ever heard the saying that when you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail?   That™s what I™m thinking happened here.    About this same time, an article appeared in the Suncoast News*, the headline read œSinkholes still swallow a lot of legislators™ time, œlawmakers could hit the ground running in 2011 with more changes to rein in fraudulent claims.   There was a photo of a real sinkhole, remember the one that occurred in the apartment complex in Tampa, with the byline, œSince this sinkhole opened in Tampa, fewer people on the Suncoast believe catastrophic ground collapse only happens in Pasco and Hernando counties, says Greg Giordano, chief legislative aide to Sen. Mike Fasano.   Really, you think?  While I know that certainly many sinkhole claims are genuine and sincere homeowners make a claim to repair their damaged homes, many others literally, œtake the money and run.   It is getting a little harder to do that, I hear (maybe that™s what they mean by œteime is running out!), but the bottom line is that sinkhole activity is just one more factor in undermining property value.   If your neighbors begin to make sinkhole claims, you can be sure you will see further drops in property values. In these financially challenging times, it can be tempting to look for a way, any way, to bring in some extra money.   And while this advertising may indeed be a legitimate business, it came across as predatory to this reader in any case.  Thankfully, Gulf Harbors has long been a œsinkhole free community. The county now offers a website** where you can go in and see where sinkhole claims have been filed. I flipped through 6100 properties and found just one in Gulf Harbors, on Seaway Drive.   Really? Seaway?   You be the judge! I also noticed a golf course home on Headsail that was advertised for sale with unrepaired œsettlement issues. That home was not listing in the Pasco county records for some reason, but the listing said an engineer™s report was available.   You can be the judge on that one too, then.   In any case, the evidence is quite clear that in spite of the fact the œTime is running out letter claimed they had helped many of my neighbors, they had the wrong neighborhood.   Let™s keep it that way!  

*Suncoast News, Wednesday, July 28, 2010

**Pasco County Property Appraiser™s Website: http://appraiser.pascogov.com/,

click on Subsidence Listing for list of homes with reported sinkhole claims

Have you noticed that many people lately seem to have the impression that there are a lot of homes for sale in Gulf Harbors?   I™ve been hearing a lot of comments lately to that effect and find that interesting.   What do you think? Are there more homes on the market these days compared to recent years? What™s the scoop? I went back to some old statistics to do some analysis.  At this writing (July 12, 2010) there are 72 Active Listings in the Greater Tampa Multiple Listing Service (MLS), ranging in price from a golf course frontage home (a short sale) at $79,000 to four luxury homes priced over a million.   Here™s a look at the past few years:

 Would you believe that a year ago at this time there were 97 homes on the market?   That is approximately 25% less homes on the market today than a year ago, a significant reduction in available homes. And when you look at the past 5 years, we have half as many on the market today than the high of 149 in 2006, which was about the time our market came to a screeching halt for a while.  You™ll also note our Pending sales and Closed sales are also up this year.   Our statistics indicate that our monthly inventory, or the rate at which homes are expected to sell, is decreasing, down to 11.5 months of inventory versus 14 months at the beginning of this year. Typically, 6 months of inventory is considered normal in real estate sales; less than 6 months inventory is considered a œseller™s market, and more than 6 months is considered a œbuyer™s market.    In Gulf Harbors™ we remain in a buyer™s market but these statistics do reveal that sales are going up and inventory is going down, a shift that will eventually lead us to market stabilization. In other words, prices will level off and even start to rise again. It™s all about supply and demand! And judging by the numbers, we are headed in that direction.  The overall conclusion is that no, there really aren™t a whole lot of homes (especially market priced homes, but that™s another story) for sale in Gulf Harbors right now, an indicator to buyers that now is the time to make a move if you want to get the best prices on Gulf Harbors real estate!      ****On a very different note, you may recall that Gulf Harbor™s residents Sandy and Preston Honeycutt™s daughter Janelle suffered a traumatic brain injury in an accident last December. Janelle has made significant progress towards her recovery and is about to enter an acute-care program at Bayfront hospital in St. Pete.   This program is designed to accelerate the TBI healing process and is key to Janelle™s recovery, but of course if very expensive.   You can follow Janelle™s progress at http://www.caringbridge.org/visit/janellehoneycutt/.   Some friends of the Honeycutt™s have come up with a fun and interesting way to help Janelle.   They are undertaking a 3 month odyssey where they will ride an œElip-to-GO from Canada to Mexico. You can follow their journey and donate to Janelle at their website: http://web.me.com/dougleland/On_the_GO/Welcome.htmlCheck it out!   Thank you! ******

****You may recall that Gulf Harbor™s residents and my best friend and business partner,  Sandy and Preston Honeycutt™s daughter Janelle suffered a traumatic brain injury in an accident last December. Janelle has made significant progress towards her recovery and is about to enter an acute-care program at Bayfront hospital in St. Pete.   This program is designed to accelerate the TBI healing process and is key to Janelle™s recovery, but of course if very expensive.   You can follow Janelle™s progress at http://www.caringbridge.org/visit/janellehoneycutt/.   Some friends of the Honeycutt™s have come up with a fun and interesting way to help Janelle.   They are undertaking a 3 month odyssey where they will ride an œElip-to-GO from Canada to Mexico. You can follow their journey and donate to Janelle at their website: http://web.me.com/dougleland/On_the_GO/Welcome.htmlCheck it out!   Thank you! ******

Mid-Year Real Estate Update  Have you noticed that many people lately seem to have the impression that there are a lot of homes for sale in Gulf Harbors?   I™ve been hearing a lot of comments lately to that effect and find that interesting.   What do you think? Are there more homes on the market these days compared to recent years? What™s the scoop? I went back to some old statistics to do some analysis.  At this writing (July 12, 2010) there are 72 Active Listings in the Greater Tampa Multiple Listing Service (MLS), ranging in price from a golf course frontage home (a short sale) at $79,000 to four luxury homes priced over a million.   Here™s a look at the past few years:

 Would you believe that a year ago at this time there were 97 homes on the market?   That is approximately 25% less homes on the market today than a year ago, a significant reduction in available homes. And when you look at the past 5 years, we have half as many on the market today than the high of 149 in 2006, which was about the time our market came to a screeching halt for a while.  You™ll also note our Pending sales and Closed sales are also up this year.   Our statistics indicate that our monthly inventory, or the rate at which homes are expected to sell, is decreasing, down to 11.5 months of inventory versus 14 months at the beginning of this year. Typically, 6 months of inventory is considered normal in real estate sales; less than 6 months inventory is considered a œseller™s market, and more than 6 months is considered a œbuyer™s market.    In Gulf Harbors™ we remain in a buyer™s market but these statistics do reveal that sales are going up and inventory is going down, a shift that will eventually lead us to market stabilization. In other words, prices will level off and even start to rise again. It™s all about supply and demand! And judging by the numbers, we are headed in that direction.  The overall conclusion is that no, there really aren™t a whole lot of homes (especially market priced homes, but that™s another story) for sale in Gulf Harbors right now, an indicator to buyers that now is the time to make a move if you want to get the best prices on Gulf Harbors real estate!        

The current crisis in the Gulf is top of mind at this time as we wait in cautious optimism that our pristine coastline will be spared.   With that in mind, we have chosen to reprint a list of resources from the Florida Association of Realtors in our column this month:   Preparation is key now for home, businesses and the environment. The following Florida resources offer guidance or direct help.  Landfall predictionsProjections from NOAA indicate weathered oil from the leading edge of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill could impact the Florida Panhandle as early as this week (June 4, 2010) due to a shift in winds and currents..Any impact to Florida’s shoreline will likely be highly weathered “ tar balls, oil sheen, tar mats or mousse, a pudding-like oil/water mixture that could be brown, rust or orange in color.

• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is tracking the oil spill’s movement. For an update, visit the NOAA website at: http://www.noaa.gov  
• If you spot oil on Florida’s coastline report it to the State Warning Point at 1 (877) 2- SAVE-FL (1-877-272-8335 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting, 1-877-272-8335end_of_the_skype_high) or dial #DEP from most cell phones.

 Onsite actionsA single website was created to coordinate federal efforts as well as BP initiatives: http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com  State and federal actions

• The State Emergency Operations Center remains activated at a Level 2 or partial activation.
• Governor Charlie Crist has issued three Executive Orders since April 30, 2010, declaring a state of emergency in 26 coastal counties that may see impacts. To read the Executive Orders, visit: http://www.dep.state.fl.us/deepwaterhorizon/default.htm#auth
• BP has opened claims offices in Florida. Visit the BP Claims Page to get addresses, phone numbers and to learn more: http://www.dep.state.fl.us/deepwaterhorizon/claims.htm

• On May 18, 2010, the Small Business Administration (SBA) opened eight offices in the Panhandle. To date, these offices have issued a total of 150 loan applications. Find an office (PDF format) at: http://www.dep.state.fl.us/deepwaterhorizon/files/small_business_admin.pdf

• The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducted water and sediment sampling to use as a baseline for monitoring air quality data should it be affected by the oil spill. Read the reports and get updates as released at: http://www.epa.gov/bpspill

 Health effectsThere are no indications of any health risks due to the Deepwater Horizon incident so far. The Department of Health and DEP are monitoring health and environmental impacts to Florida’s beaches and will notice an advisory if conditions become unsafe. To read more about the possible health effects from oil, go to (PDF): http://www.dep.state.fl.us/deepwaterhorizon/files/faq_doh_051010.pdfFishing and seafood

• NOAA extended the boundaries of the closed fishing area in the Gulf of Mexico to the state water line in Alabama and the western tip of Florida’s Panhandle. The federal closure does not currently apply to any of Florida’s waters, and it’s called a precautionary measure. For the latest update, check the Deepwater Horizon website at: http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com. Scroll to “Current Ops” at the top and click on “Fish and Wildlife Report.”
• Fishermen who wish to contact BP about a claim should call (800) 440-0858 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting   (800) 440-0858            end_of_the_skype_highlighting.
•  Report oiled wildlife to the Wildlife Distress Hotline at (866) 557-1401 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting, (866) 557-1401. For the safety of the public as well as the safety of animals, trained responders should conduct rescues.

Tourism

• Florida’s tourism website, www.VISITFLORIDA.com, posts up-to-the-minute information on the status of any city or region in Florida. Vacationers may also view live Twitter feeds of any changes. Learn more at: http://www.visitflorida.com/florida_travel_advisory/.
• The Florida State Parks have not felt any effect, but updates on closings, if any, will be posted on their website: http://www.floridastateparks.org. Visitors can also get updates by calling 1 (850) 245-2157 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting,1 (850) 245-2157.

Tips for homeowners

• Coastal homeowners have inundated the state with calls about what they can do to protect their property. The state has offered suggestions on what is allowed and what to avoid in a single (PDF) file: http://www.dep.state.fl.us/deepwaterhorizon/files/protect_shoreline_tips.pdf

 Tips for businesses and consumers

• The Attorney General’s fraud hotline is open to receive reports of fraud or price gouging by individuals or companies trying to take advantage of the Gulf oil crisis. Call the hotline at: 1 (866) 966-7226 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting,  1 (866) 966-7226            end_of_the_skype_highlighting.
• The Florida Agriculture and Consumer Services Commissioner gas price-gouging hotline is also operational. The toll-free hotline number is: 1 (800) HELP-FLA begin_of_the_skype_highlighting  ,   (1-800- 435-7352 begin_of_the_skype_highlightingend_of_the_skype_highlighting).
• Coastal businesses should keep good records and make loss of earnings claims for damages incurred as a result of the oil spill. Businesses should file a claim with BP by calling 1 (800) 440- 0858. Learn more at http://www.myfloridacfo.com/oilspill/default.htm or by calling 1 (850) 413-089 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting  or toll-free at 1 (877) MY-FL-CFOend_of_the_skype_highlighting).

 Volunteer opportunities

• The Governor’s Commission on Volunteerism and Community Service is encouraging Floridians and visitors to become a Coast Watch volunteer. To help or to get more information about scheduled beach cleanups and other volunteer opportunities at: www.volunteerfloridadisaster.org.
• BP established a volunteer program and set up a toll-free number for those interested in volunteering. Learn more by calling BP’s community information line at 1 (866) 448-5816 begin_of_the_skype_highlightingend_of_the_skype_highlighting.

 Learn more about Florida’s response

• DEP launched a Twitter account, www.Twitter.com/FLDEPalert, dedicated to providing updates on Florida’s response to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.
• For a list of Unified Command, BP and Florida phone numbers, visit http://www.dep.state.fl.us/deepwaterhorizon/default.htm#numbers
• The Oil Spill Information Line is available at 1 (888) 337-3569 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting                            1 (888) 337-3569            end_of_the_skype_highlighting from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. seven days a week. Additional phone numbers have also been established for persons with disabilities: (800) 955-8771 (TDD) or (800) 955-8770 (voice).

© 2010 Florida Realtors ®  

Until next month, take care and God Bless!             Judi Pobst

The Federal Government implemented a new program designed to help primary homeowners avoid foreclosure that may actually help (imagine that!).   After the Home Affordable Modification Program (loan modification) program failed to help but only a few, someone up there realized we needed another way to help people who are faced with losing their homes due to income loss or other genuine hardships.  

The new program, called the œHome Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives program (or HAFA), is meant to expedite the short sale process allowing people to sell their homes or do a deed in lieu of foreclosures vs. waiting for the bank to take their home. This program has some real benefits to distressed homeowners.   If approved, a homeowner working with a Realtor can get their home approved for a short sale prior to going on the market with a bank approved price, so instead of the guess work of short sales in the past, you know the sale will be approved.  One of the best things about this program for homeowners is that the œdeficiency, the difference between what is owed and the sale price will be written off and forgiven.   That means homeowners have no fear that the bank is going to come back after them for the difference in years to come. It is over.   Another fantastic benefit is that the homeowner will receive $3000.00 to help them with moving expenses, etc.   The idea is that by helping homeowners overcome a difficult time in their lives, they can make a fresh start.

Distressed homeowners avoid the stress of the unknown and can place their home on the market knowing they have 3-6 months to move, and some money in their pockets to get started someplace new. But what is good for those folks who are facing foreclosure is also good for neighborhood property values overall.   Properties will be pre-approval at reasonable market prices and buyers will be able to make an offer on a property with confidence it will close in a given time frame.   This helps market prices stabilize while reducing the number of abandoned homes sitting vacant and losing value while someone somewhere is trying to figure out what to do with them!

In other news, last week one of the headlines in the Florida Realtor News read: UF: Fla. real estate market has hit bottom . . “Results of our 1st quarter survey indicate that the real estate market … is stabilizing,” says UF real estate center director. . . .Well, wouldn™t that be nice! J   The scoop is that in order for market prices to stablize, the number of homes going into foreclosure must begin to subside. We™re hoping this program lends a hand in that direction

Now for some Gulf Harbors™ statistics, as of May 7, 2010, there were 89 homes for sale in the Greater Tampa Board of Realtor™s MLS system, 80 on deep water, 9 with water access only. Of those, 13 are short sales, and just one is œbank owned.

There are 19 homes under contract, or œpending, 11 of those are short sales, 2 are bank owned, and 6   are œregular sales.   In the past 90 days, 14 homes sold and close; 3 were short sales and 11 œregular sales closed.   What does that tell us?     Even though only 15% of Active listings are short sales, the bulk (68%) of Pending sales are short sale or foreclosures.   As for the closed sales, 21% were distressed. So there is a higher percentage of distressed properties under contract and closing than in general on the market. Why the difference? First and foremost is price, short sales are generally priced lower than regular sales and the high percentage of distressed Pendings is because short sales simply take longer to close at this point.

Perhaps if the government gets more takers on its new HAFA program, will see more of these sold and closed, a more hope that indeed, our market prices have hit bottom!  

**For more information about HAFA and to see if you or someone you know may qualify,   go to http://www.cdpe.com/hafa/short-sale/details.

Until next month, take care and God Bless!             Judi Pobst

In a move that mystified some Gulf Harbors buyers recently, a home in our neighborhood became available for sale, but not to everyone.   When this beautifully remodeled home came onto the market last month in a popular price range, it attracted buyers like flies to honey.   This was a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 car garage home with fireplace and a floating dock on a deep water canal with unobstructed gulf access.   All that sounds good but there™s more . . . due to the requirements of the seller, this home had to be updated to current code prior to being sold.   What does that mean?   It means a new tile roof, hurricane-rated windows and garage door and more.  Interior updates included a complete rehab and new appliances.    

So, what do you think a fabulous Gulf Harbors waterfront home like that would go for?   Try $165,000, or approximately $100.00 per square foot, for this like-new property.   Believe me when I say, most homes on the market today in any price range lack the updates of this little jewel. Now you know why the buyers came a-running.   But most left dismayed when they were told that even though they had the cash and/or financing to purchase the home, they did not qualify to do so.   Huh?   We thought discrimination was outlawed in this country.   Not so for homes in the Neighborhood Stabilization Program.

With all good intentions, this program was created with the goal of giving foreclosed homes a facelift in neighborhoods experiencing a high number of abandoned, run-down properties, and an incentive to buyers to purchase them and move in. According to the group overseeing the program, œIt is designed to help middle income families purchase fully REHABBED foreclosures and stimulate the economy. œ   Funded by federal government stimulus money, Pasco County™s œNeighborhood Stimulus Group finds foreclosed homes, renovates them to current standards, and sells them to qualified buyers. To qualify, applicants must meet minimum income requirements (from $49,968 for a one person household, up to $82,400 for a 6-person family) and attend a Pasco County Homebuyer training program **.   Only buyers who meet these qualifications were eligible to purchase the œNSP home. In addition, the county will provide up to $30,000 in the form of an interest-free loan to help homebuyers qualify for the purchase, not a bad deal, right?   So, why are some of us complaining?   We have a few reasons to be a little concerned; one is that it does seem unfair that qualified buyers have no opportunity to purchase the best bargain on the market today (or bid the price up to appropriate market value).   As a real estate professional and especially as a homeowner in Gulf Harbors, I am concerned that deals like this one will further drive down our property values.   Think about it, why is the fixer down the street worth any more than a completely renovated home?   When I say fixer, I don™t mean a home in disrepair, just one like most out there today that are somewhere in the process of being totally updated since being built. It is incongruous to me that the program should put a home like this in one of the premier neighborhoods in Pasco County for an under market price.   Are the properties priced lower than market to give middle income families a chance to live in neighborhoods they couldn™t otherwise afford?   That is all well and good, but if it undermines property values for all, what good is that?   It may backfire causing more people to abandon their homes and then what?   Let™s hope this is not the case, but in the future, it seems it would be equitable to price the property accordingly. If it™s neighborhood stabilization they want to achieve, it would help if they didn™t engage in a practice that actually œstimulates the trend of declining market values. It would help if they at least offered the property for sale at a fair and reasonable market value for the condition and location of the property.   There are a number of qualified real estate professionals who specialize in Gulf Harbors who would be glad to help them do that, no doubt. Stabilizing and ultimately improving property values is good for the economy and for the neighborhood, after all.  **For more information, visit their website at www.neighborhoodstimulus.com  

Until next month, take care and God Bless!             Judi Pobst

I predict a boon in the sunshine state when a few states thaw out. What do you think? We may have had a long cold winter Florida style but at least we weren™t snowed in, scraping or shoveling!We certainly hope so, the since last month™s issue the market has been very quiet with only 2 homes going under contract (according to the Greater Tampa Board of Realtors).   With 95 homes Active on the market, that makes the monthly inventory about 47 months. Now that™s a chilling statistic for the sellers in our neighborhood.   But wait “ there is some exciting news!   Gulf Harbors™ real estate has achieved a new high with the March sale of a beautiful home on Westshore for a price of $2.8 Million dollars. That home has been on and off the market since 2005 and was offered for as high as $4.2, most recently at $3.5M. We are happy to welcome our new neighbors to our community and hope they will tell their friends of all we have to offer! That said, when you compare current average sold prices from 12 months ago, property values still continue to decline. This is very difficult to see on a monthly basis, but with properties falling at the rate of 12-15% per year, that would make the monthly decline figure at one-plus percent.   Now this affects certain price ranges more than others. The lower price range has pretty much bottomed out; inventories are being rapidly absorbed due to numerous homebuyer incentives and programs. Higher end properties still have a ways to go. It is not over until it is over    . . . . and it is not over yet.    

For sellers who are buying a replacement home, keep in mind that any shortfalls in the sale of your current home are soon to be made up on your new purchase.National statistics show that there are currently 6 million properties involved in the short sale or foreclosure process.  Moratoriums that have putting off the inevitable are œwearing off; there are 7 million more foreclosures and short sales soon to hit the radar screen. This is what we call our œshadow inventory. We still have a couple more years of this historic œadjustment.   Statistics in Gulf Harbors are still unclear, but I can report that of the 11 pending listings at this time, 9 are short sales and only 2 are regular sales.   Interestingly enough though, 5 homes sold and closed in February through early March and not one was in foreclosure.   This is an indicator of how long and difficult it is to close a short sale. The same homes stay pending month after month while sellers with equity can close quickly.What does all this mean? It is still a great time to buy . . . . the sale continues. . . . Florida is the best buy on the planet, especially Gulf Harbors!   Tell all your friends to buy some today!

       On another note, only a half a dozen people contacted me to get on the communication list regarding the purchase of the golf course.   We are doing a study of how having a quality golf club effects property values in a community. If you are interested in staying in the loop, please email or call me with your name, phone and email and we will contact you with more information.  

Until next month, take care and God Bless!             Judi Pobst

On a recent rainy and somewhat miserable Friday night, a group of professionals in financial, law, and real estate related fields got together to conduct a seminar for Gulf Harbors residences on matter ranging from Roth IRA™s to Remodeling Tips.   There was a plethora of valuable and interesting information shared with the sparse but enthusiastic crowd that gathered at the Civic Center.  In my presentation, I asked the audience if they wanted to know if the market was improving.   The answer was a resounding yes!   And it is improving! The question is for whom:  home buyers or sellers?   Here™s a look at the stats for the last 2 years:

The market today is the best in decades and yes, getting better for buyers.   Think about record low interest rates, tax credits for first time home buyers and a large choice of homes selling for discount prices.   In the Gulf Harbors, we are clearly in a buyer™s market. The market is determined by the œabsorption rate or monthly inventory.   You determine the absorption rate by dividing the number of homes sold last year by 12, giving us an absorption rate of 6 homes sold per month. For monthly inventory, you take the absorption rate, 6, and divide it by the number of Active listings, 85, which equals 14.   What that means is, 85 homes selling at a rate of 6 month would take 14 months to sell.   Here™s a chart for that:

Absorption Rate:   # of Homes Sold / 12

2009 Sales:   72/12= 6 homes sold per month

Month™s Inventory: # Sold-Month / Actives

2010 Active: 85/6= 14 months inventory

Anything over 7 months is a buyer™s market, so we have doubled that. Combine that with the huge decline in the average SOLD prices year to year, and the Buyer™s clearly come out the winners in this market.

The good news for sellers is that more homes are selling overall, there are fewer homes on the market (less competition) and homes are selling faster.   What the future holds for prices has everything to do with the number of new foreclosure notices being filed.   As you know, foreclosures and short sales have been the impetus for driving prices lower. Until we see a reduction in the number of new filings, we cannot expect that we™ve seen the bottom for prices. More on that next month . . .

 Is a new, improved Gulf Harbors Golf Course in our future?  A group of very nice, good looking, wine drinking and well spoken neighbors has been investigating the potential of purchasing and developing the Gulf Harbors Golf Course. Previously there was a contract to sell the property to a developer of homes.  We believe that our community could be enhanced and property values increased if the golf course was improved and maintained as a community amenity such as exists on the East Coast and in expensive communities further south. Studies have shown that properties in communities with golf courses sell for 20% -30% higher than properties that have no such amenities.  Within the community of Sea Forest, Woodlands and Gulf Harbors there are approximately 3,500 homes. If each of the home owners contributed $2,000 there would be a fund of $7,000,000 to purchase, renovate and maintain the golf course. Homes that today can only sell for $150,000 should be able to sell for at least $30,000 more or $180,000 and be sold in a shorter period of time if the golf course were to be renovated or shown that it will be renovated.  If you are interested in learning more, please email or call me with your name, phone and email and we will contact you with more information.  

Until next month, take care and God Bless!             Judi Pobst